Framing lumber (2x4 SPF) is at $412 per thousand board feet as of March 2026, down 8.4% year-over-year but up 6.2% from February. Plywood (3/4" OSB) is at $318/MSF. Pressure-treated lumber (2x6) is at $695/MBF, up 5.6% year-over-year.
The month-over-month jump got some attention in contractor circles. Let me give you the full picture before you start buying lumber futures.
Where Lumber Prices Actually Stand
The most important thing to understand about framing lumber at $412/MBF is context: it's historically moderate.
The 2021 peak hit approximately $1,700/MBF during the pandemic-era supply shock. That was an anomaly driven by mill shutdowns, explosive DIY demand, and builders trying to pull housing starts forward. It crashed back to earth — hitting below $400/MBF at various points in 2023. The current $412/MBF is essentially that recovery — sitting just above the post-2021 normalized range, not an alarm signal.
The BLS PPI for lumber and wood products is down 8.4% year-over-year, which confirms that the directional story is softening prices, not rising ones. The +6.2% month-over-month is real but should be read for what it is: a spring demand uptick, not a trend reversal.
For builders: framing costs on a 2,400 sq ft home using roughly 15,000 board feet of framing lumber are approximately $6,180 at current pricing — compared to $25,500 at the 2021 peak. The crisis is over.
What's Driving the March-to-April Move
Three things are pushing lumber up slightly right now:
Seasonal demand: Spring is when residential construction accelerates. Builders who broke ground in Q1 are ordering framing material. Concrete work is done, framing starts. This seasonal pattern has been consistent in lumber markets for decades — prices typically firm in February-April and soften again in July-August as the construction push slows.
Tariff noise: A 25% tariff on Canadian softwood lumber has been in place under various forms since 2017. There's ongoing litigation and potential rate changes. Any tariff-related uncertainty creates short-term stocking behavior that pressures prices. Canada supplies roughly 25-30% of US lumber consumption — any disruption there is felt quickly at distributors.
Mill capacity caution: US sawmill production was reduced in 2024-2025 in response to the post-pandemic price correction. Mills that cut capacity don't immediately restart it when demand firms. The supply response to rising prices is slower than the demand response, which creates brief price spikes.
None of these factors are building to a sustained breakout. The structural story on lumber — more mill capacity from the Southeast, Canadian supply normalization, and housing starts that remain below 2005 peaks — points to continued moderate pricing.
Plywood and OSB: A Different Story
While framing lumber is down year-over-year, OSB/plywood at $318/MSF warrants a separate look.
OSB (oriented strand board) is the dominant sheathing material on most residential projects — it's used for roof decking, wall sheathing, and subfloor in the majority of production homes. At $318/MSF, it's essentially flat year-over-year after a significant run-up that peaked above $900/MSF in 2021.
The OSB market has been volatile but has settled into a more normal range. Key factors:
- OSB mills are concentrated in a smaller number of large operators (West Fraser, LP Building Solutions, Norbord) with more pricing discipline than the framing lumber market
- OSB demand is highly correlated with housing starts, which remain subdued
- Canadian production capacity remains adequate
For a 2,400 sq ft home requiring roughly 7,000 sq ft of sheathing across walls, roof, and subfloor, OSB costs approximately $2,226 at current pricing — down from well over $6,000 at 2021 peak. Flat is fine here.
Pressure-Treated Lumber: The Outlier
PT lumber (2x6 at $695/MBF, +5.6% YoY) is worth flagging for contractors who do deck construction, outdoor structures, or sill plates.
The premium in PT lumber is driven by:
- Preservative treatment costs (copper-based treatments use — no surprise — copper, which is up 31% year-over-year)
- The majority of PT lumber is southern yellow pine, whose pricing dynamics differ from SPF framing lumber
- Deck construction has held up better than general residential as consumers substitute home improvement spending for discretionary purchases
For deck contractors: PT material costs have increased meaningfully. A 400 sq ft deck using 2,800 board feet of framing material (joists, beams, posts — before decking boards) runs approximately $1,946 in PT framing alone at current prices, up about $100 year-over-year. Decking boards themselves (composite or cedar) have separate price dynamics.
The Supply Picture: Canada Is the Variable
US lumber supply comes from three main sources: the US Southeast (SYP), the US West (Doug fir, hem-fir), and Canada (SPF, primarily BC and Alberta). Canada's share is roughly 25-30% of US consumption.
The ongoing US-Canada lumber trade dispute centers on stumpage fees — the rate at which Canadian provinces charge timber companies for harvesting rights on Crown (government-owned) land. The US Lumber Coalition has argued these fees are below-market subsidies; Canada has contested this. Multiple NAFTA/USMCA panels have sided with Canada, but the US has maintained countervailing duties.
The current tariff rate is approximately 8.05% (it has changed multiple times). There's ongoing pressure to increase this. Any upward revision would immediately add cost to the 25-30% of US lumber supply that comes from Canada — which would filter through to pricing in weeks, not months.
If you're a contractor watching one variable in the lumber market, watch the Canadian softwood trade dispute. A tariff increase of 5-10 percentage points would push framing lumber above $500/MBF within a quarter.
The Regional Dimension
Lumber prices aren't uniform nationally, and regional variation can matter more than the headline CME number:
Southeast builders have the most favorable dynamics. The South is the fastest-growing US timber region — SYP production capacity has expanded significantly over the past decade. Contractors in Georgia, Florida, the Carolinas, and Texas typically pay below-national-average prices for framing lumber.
Western builders face more cost pressure. Western species (Doug fir, hem-fir) command premiums for structural applications and are subject to logging restrictions in old-growth areas that constrain supply.
Midwest and Northeast pricing generally tracks the CME benchmark closely, with regional distributors adding their normal margin.
What Contractors Should Do Right Now
Don't panic-buy on the spring uptick: The MoM bump is seasonal, not structural. Buying 12 weeks of framing lumber inventory at $412/MBF to hedge against a price that might reach $440/MBF in June is not a good trade. You're tying up cash and paying carrying costs to capture marginal price movement.
Do lock pricing on large framing packages before tariff noise resolves: If you have a multifamily or large custom home starting in May or June, get a 60-90 day pricing commitment from your framing supplier. The tariff situation with Canada is the one legitimate wildcard that could create a meaningful price event.
Evaluate your framing-to-scope ratio on bids: At $412/MBF, framing lumber is running roughly 3-4% of total construction cost on a standard residential project. That's within a normal range. If your bids are getting squeezed, lumber is probably not the problem — look at labor costs and copper/electrical first.
Use futures pricing as a benchmark, not a signal: The CME Random Lengths framing lumber futures contract can tell you what the market expects prices to be in 3-6 months. If current spot is $412 and 3-month futures are at $380, the market is telling you prices will soften — that's a reason to hold off on stocking up.
For tract builders running 20+ starts per year, a simple hedging strategy — holding 4-6 weeks of framing material inventory when spring demand pushes prices to seasonal highs, and buying hand-to-mouth when summer softens prices — can recover $200-$400 per unit in material cost. The construction cost estimating guide for 2026 covers how to build lumber cost volatility into your bid structure.
What the Broader Materials Picture Means for Lumber Bidding
The 2026 construction material cost report paints a market where lumber is one of the better news stories: down 8.4% year-over-year while copper is up 31%, drywall up 11%, and rebar up 14%. For GCs estimating mixed residential-commercial projects, the lumber line is holding while everything else climbs.
The practical implication: if you're bidding a project right now and want to know where to focus your escalation risk management, lumber is lower priority than copper, electrical materials, and concrete. Build your escalation clauses around the volatile line items — the copper pricing analysis covers the tactical approach in detail — and treat lumber as a relative safe harbor in the current market.
FAQ
What is framing lumber costing in 2026? 2x4 SPF framing lumber is at $412 per thousand board feet (MBF) as of March 2026, down 8.4% year-over-year. This is moderate pricing historically — the 2021 peak was approximately $1,700/MBF. Plywood (3/4" OSB) is at $318/MSF.
Will lumber prices go up in 2026? Prices are up 6.2% month-over-month in early 2026 from seasonal spring demand. The bigger risk is a tariff increase on Canadian softwood lumber, which supplies 25-30% of US consumption. A tariff revision could push framing lumber above $500/MBF. The base case is continued moderate pricing in the $380-$480/MBF range.
How much does lumber cost for a 2,400 sq ft house? A 2,400 sq ft home typically uses 13,000-17,000 board feet of framing lumber. At $412/MBF, that's approximately $5,400-$7,000 in structural framing lumber — not including sheathing, trim, or engineered wood products. This compares to $22,000-$29,000 at the 2021 peak.
Should contractors stock up on lumber now? Generally, no. The spring uptick is seasonal, not a sustained trend. The one exception: if you have a large framing package starting in 60-90 days and want protection against Canadian tariff risk, a pricing commitment from your supplier is worth getting.
Why is pressure-treated lumber more expensive than framing lumber? PT lumber is treated with copper-based preservatives, and copper prices are up 31% year-over-year. PT lumber (2x6) is at $695/MBF vs $412 for untreated framing lumber — a significant premium driven partly by treatment chemistry and partly by southern yellow pine pricing dynamics.
How do Canadian tariffs affect lumber prices for US contractors? Canada supplies approximately 25-30% of US lumber consumption. The current countervailing duty rate is approximately 8%. If tariff rates increase by 5-10 percentage points under renegotiation, US framing lumber prices could increase 3-5% within weeks as distributors reprice inventory — a direct cost passthrough to contractors.
